Will you sell AIS?

From a business point of view, that is a definite YES for me.

Why? Because AIS is going nowhere but downhill at that point in time.

Ever heard of the phrase "Sell high and buy low?" That is the point that AIS is reaching; the very peak and it's starting to flat out. Of course AIS is the #1 telecommunication operator at the end of 2005 with the majority market share. However, the trend did not look good for AIS. With the midyear acquisition of DTAC by a Norwegian company and the merger of TRUE and UBC officially released in December 2005, the future of AIS was anything but bright.

At that point in time, the future of the telecommunication industry was no longer 2G or GSM, the most current technology employed. Its future was 3G. It was forecasted that the 3G license was to be granted at the latest the 3rd quarter of 2006, therefore 3G was coming, and fast. The problem was that AIS did not gain any advantages from this knowledge. For the the past years, AIS held the most market share because it had the best infrastructure and was the first in the market. The fact that it had the best licensing deal (again, because it was the first one in the market) and being first in the market significantly help its infrastructure. The revenue and profit from the investment could be put into the infrastructure, resulting in an increase in the customer base and increase in profit, resulting in further investment, and so on. The playing field was never leveled.

However, the coming of 3G was about to flatten the once thought mountainous playing field. 3G requires reinvestment in the infrastructure. Thus, whoever has more to invest is likely to win the 3G game. With the Norwegian acquisition of DTAC, the company was primed to compete in the new 3G arena. It had investments that AIS did not have. The merger of TRUE and UBC was their "blue ocean strategy." Instead of bidding in a price war or a 3G investment war, TRUE opted for content instead. Their "Triple Play" strategy tie their internet service, land line, mobile phone, and content together. This integration and TRUE's tendency to go toward WIMAX instead of 3G clearly show that TRUE is carving out a new market segment of its own, which give the company its own competitive advantage and a clear direction of its future.

Clearly, AIS was lacking behind the other two major telecommunication players. DTAC's advantage was its potential power to invest. TRUE's advantage was its integration strategy and content. The reinvestment in the 3G technology cannot guarantee that AIS would continue to be the market leader, considering that everyone is starting over from scratch, and the biggest spender who finished the infrastructure overhaul first would be the favorite for the new market leader. Over the long term of 3-5 years, AIS may no longer hold the majority market segment. So, why should AIS reinvest? Because their only other choice is to reinvent.

What do they do? Reinvest, reinvent, or die?

AIS has tried to reinvent itself corporate-wise. The NWO project was a great idea that failed. Technology-wise, push mail and other corporate strategy was a good idea, but not one that would put them ahead of others in the industry. They havn't had an industry-shaking move for a very long time. They did not need to before, but they need it now. The problem was, that did not happen or maybe could not happen.

Whatever the reason was, their only other choice is to reinvest. However, competing against the financial investment of a foreign company would most likely be the last thing on its mind, considering the playing field and other situations.

If I own AIS, I would definitely sell it to the highest bidder because

• AIS may not want to reinvest
• DTAC has foreign backing
• TRUE has content advantage
• AIS may no longer be the market leader in 3-5 year time period.

So why should I not sell AIS when the profit is highest?

I would be most stupid if I don't sell.